Page 1 of 1

Module Code - Title:

MG5013 - STRATEGIC FORESIGHT AND SYSTEMS CHANGE

Year Last Offered:

2023/4

Hours Per Week:

Lecture

2

Lab

8

Tutorial

0

Other

0

Private

10

Credits

12

Grading Type:

N

Prerequisite Modules:

Rationale and Purpose of the Module:

The aim of this module is to equip learners with the ability to understand complex change, the interconnected nature of society's most intractable problems and to design industry and market based solutions (e.g products/services) to these challenges. In the context of catastrophic impacts of multiple crises such as climate change, rising social inequality, and political polarisation across the world, there is a need for a systematic effort to: explore important future alternatives for our society, markets and the biosphere; ascertain which among these futures appears to be preferable and why; and to seek ways by which the probability of their occurrence could be enhanced through innovative responses and appropriate individual and organisational action. This module will contextualise complex challenges from a systems perspective and leverage approaches, methods and tools from the field of strategic foresight to frame interventions and change. Systems are ubiquitous and our interactions with them so pervasive that intervening in them becomes a challenge. These unnoticed systems produce their own patterns of behaviour over time, become entrenched and direct markets and society toward unsustainable futures. This module will equip learners to understand the anatomy and dynamics within complex 'living systems' (such as emergence, resilience, feedback, sensitivity to initial conditions, self organisation and the dynamic/temporal relationship between whole and part) and will capacitate learners with the knowledge and capabilities to intervene in complex systems. The future is becoming more important to the present. We have entered an era in which the pace of change is accelerating rapidly. At the same time the scale and complexity of impending change is increasing. Therefore, the risks and opportunities that confront us justify efforts to shape rather than be shaped. There is a need for a systematic effort: to explore important future alternatives for our society and biosphere; to ascertain which among these futures appears to be preferable and why; and to seek means by which the probability of their occurrence could be enhanced through appropriate agency.   In combining these perspectives in a studio based learning environment, this module will uniquely position learners to be capable of looking forward and make informed projections about the future to set strategy, make plans and evaluate potential courses of action. Strategic foresight approaches and techniques enable visualisations of what the future might look like, allowing the benefits and drawbacks of different options and actions to be explored to influence and inform organisational strategy, policy, prioritisation and focus. 

Syllabus:

* Introduction to systems change and wicked problems (anatomy, dynamics, framing and mapping) * Socio-technical Systems (types, tools and transitions) * Living Systems Theory (the characteristics and properties of complex adaptive systems). * Leverage Points (places to intervene in complex systems) * Introduction to strategic foresight.        * Visualising Futures and the anatomy of a trend/signal * Forecasting frameworks and approaches. * Designing alternative futures scenarios.* Designing systems interventions (ecologies of interventions).

Learning Outcomes:

Cognitive (Knowledge, Understanding, Application, Analysis, Evaluation, Synthesis)

On successful completion of this module, students will be able to:  1) Demonstrate a deep understanding of the role of strategic foresight under conditions of growing uncertainty. 2) Identify trends and signals and critically evaluate their potential impact. 3) Critically examine the nature of complex problems, their anatomy and dynamics. 4) Distinguish between the consequence and root causes of systems problems and identify points of intervention.

Affective (Attitudes and Values)

On successful completion of this module, students will be able to:  1) Appreciate the complexity of markets in the making and how they are shaped over time. 2) Collaborate in multidisciplinary teams in a dynamic, live environment. 3) Critically reflect on alternative market system configurations and their respective power dynamics. 4) Actively involve citizens, stakeholders and 'silenced' or marginalised groups and mediate between different interests. 

Psychomotor (Physical Skills)

On successful completion of this module, students will be able to:

How the Module will be Taught and what will be the Learning Experiences of the Students:

This module will be taught following a heutagogical approach, learners will be introduced to theoretical dimensions and methods and then work individually and collectively. This will require learners to move back and forward between theory and practice. The learning environment will be studio based and will incorporate both physical and digital/virtual studio learning environments. Studio modes of education are core to design and other cogent disciplines and enable learners to practice professional skills in small groups where one's professional skills are challenged by others - both peers and mentors (Heikkinen, et. al.,2015). DFI will work to mainstream a studio-based approach, in an innovative hybrid learning environment, across business, and STEAM. DFI learning experiences will themselves be transdisciplinary in nature. Transdisciplinary approaches advocate a focus on societally relevant problems, enabling mutual learning processes among participants aiming at creating knowledge that is solution-oriented and socially robust (Lang et al 2012). Module delivery will include virtual and blended approaches that will make use of available digital tools (MS Teams and Miro) to support real time digital collaborative engagement in a studio learning environment. These tools enable a range of work practices vital in a successful studio learning environment, including visualization, text, and video communications, and readily sharing of resources by learners themselves. In this setting learner's virtual working environments become proximate and a community of learners can be created.

Research Findings Incorporated in to the Syllabus (If Relevant):

Prime Texts:

Bishop, P. and Hines (2015) Thinking about the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight , Hinesight

Other Relevant Texts:

Escobar, Arturo (2019) Other Worlds are (Already) Possible  , Routledge India, New Delh
Wahl, Daniel (2017) The Three Horizons of Innovation and Culture Change. , Medium
Candy, S (2019) Backcasting , Rockport. Beverley, MA
Capra, F., & Luisi, P. (2014) The Systems View of Life: A Unifying Vision , Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
Shove, Elizabeth and Gordon Walker (2010) Governing transitions in the sustainability of everyday life , Research Policy 39. pp 471-476

Programme(s) in which this Module is Offered:

Semester - Year to be First Offered:

Module Leader:

annmarie.ryan@ul.ie